A lot happened this summer in the world of politics. One of the largest changes was who was running for president. Donald Trump is still running, but the major surprise was Joe Biden, who is the current president, dropping out and recommending Kamala Harris as nominee. Then, in August, delegates officially elected her to be the nominee. There was also an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and both parties condemned political violence.
On September 10, the first presidential debate with Kamala Harris, the new nominee, happened. The reaction was very mixed. Some people felt it was unfair, while others felt that one of the candidates won. There was previously a debate on June 27, which caused many to be worried about Joe Biden’s age, so then he was swapped out. What most pollsters and news will tell you is that it will be close no matter who it is. Our own state, Pennsylvania, might not have results on election night, but more likely, the election will be called by news networks that night, and most likely that will be correct. Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden in 2020 before anyone else, and they were right: Joe Biden won Arizona by 11 thousand votes. So, even though it might not be confirmed, it should be clear who is president. Another problem is the margin of error in polling, where all polls can be off by a certain percentage, so unless a candidate is leading the polls by about ten or more percent, it is not set in stone. Now, 538 polling, which is done by ABC News, takes the average of all the polls and puts them into their own polls and predictions. Doing this makes it harder to have polling bias, and it is more accurate because it takes into account more people.
The wars that are going on outside the United States are causing some voters to not want to vote for either candidate because of where they stand. Michigan has a high population of Arab Americans who usually vote Democratic, but the conflicts might have them not going out to vote. A lot of Americans worry about economic stability in the United States, and both candidates have talked about how they will fix this. Harris says she will combat price gouging, and Trump has said he will open drilling locations. He repeats the phrase “drill, baby drill” during his rallies. He says if he were president for the last four years, both the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine wars would not happen under his watch and when he becomes president he will stop them. He will also conduct “the largest deportation in American history”. This could hurt the amount of labor the United States has because of how many people who work here are not always here legally. Harris runs on having tax cuts for the middle class and not allowing any national abortion ban.
On October 1, the vice-presidential debate occurred, and many from either side of the political compass were happy about the civility and kindness each candidate had for each other. JD Vance specifically was not as popular before the debate, but later, a lot of people had a more favorable opinion of Vance. Tim Walz has only gotten more favorable as the election moves on. According to 538, Walz has 41 percent favorability from before, while before the debate he only had 40.01 percent, so there has been a one percent increase. JD Vance has struggled to get the American people on his side. He is currently at 45 percent unfavorable with his favorability only going up one percent to 35.6, which is still not extremely high, but the debate helped. Tim Walz is currently the governor of Minnesota, and J.D. Vance is a U.S. senator from Ohio.
Now, in less than a month, there is going to be a final stretch for both candidates. They will be going to the last couple of states that are not swinging to either side. This race is close, and if either side gets complacent, then that might cause a loss. One of the major ways Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 was not visiting Michigan until the very end, and many Democrats did not realize this failure until the end, causing her to lose. As mentioned above, Michigan could be lost not because of a failure to campaign there, but a failure to get Arab Americans to go out and vote.
As Election Day comes closer, there will be a lot of anxiety, but no matter what, the Earth will still spin. But everyone who is eligible should vote. Especially in Pennsylvania, your vote is worth more than a lot of other states. Whoever aligns with your ideals, you should vote for. Bucks County is also a swing county — not being either red or blue means your vote is even more important. A lot of people do not get the chance to have such an impact on elections, but here, you do. So, vote and make sure you agree with who you vote for.
